Thoughts about faith

Problems with Darwinism

Darwin3

A key thing for me was their challenging the historic notion that given “enough time” an elaborate and lengthy set of conditions could come together by pure chance. Darwin’s analogy that given enough time a group of monkey’s sitting at type writers could eventually produce the collective works of Shakespeare. Just bang on those keys long enough and eventually the works of Shakespeare will appear.

Think about that analogy. Not all the keys on a type writer are letters that can begin a word. Some are not even found in words. So first the monkey has to randomly pick an appropriate key. Now that has to be followed by another random key strike that will produce the exact letter needed to follow that first letter. If that key strike is invalid, that page will never be part of the collective writings of Shakespeare. Ok, so the monkey tears that piece of paper away and tries again. Eventually he’ll get the second letter right but that assumes he first gets the first letter right. Since the monkey has no idea what he’s typing, he never knows when he’s right. It’s all “right” to him. He just types until he’s done with that sheet of paper then puts in the next. If he types a percent sign as the first letter on the page, everything he types after that is wasted because you can’t begin a sentence with a percent sign or have a standalone percent sign.

So we think it’s just a matter of time though until this group of monkeys gets it right. That analogy, though, is way too simplistic. It’s assuming they monkeys don’t break the typewriters before they write the collective works of Shakespeare. It assumes they don’t run out of paper or ribbon. It assumes they know how to load a sheet of paper into the typewriter and later take it out. It’s not just a matter of randomly hitting the correct keys. I assume his analogy included 100 monkeys because 100 could do it faster than 1. As soon as  you have more than 1 monkey though, you introduce the problem of collation. Somehow this group of monkeys all have to hit the exact right sequence of keys, change paper, and all produce the exact pages needed to create the collective works of Shakespeare. When do they start over? After how many hours of typing do you say, “those pages are no good”, throw them out, and start anew? Who decides when their done? How do they even know when to stop typing? What about the billions or trillions of bad pages they produced? What happened to all of them? Let’s assume the collective works of Shakespeare would take up 5000 typed pages. Just a guess but let’s assume that. For 100 monkeys, with infinite time, to randomly produce the exact 5000 typed pages needed they would likely have produced trillions of wasted pages. Let’s say they eventually produced the 5000 needed then died. This all took place in a giant cave. Some future humans discover the cave and we’ll assume the pages have not decayed. How are they going to discover the 5000 pages that make up the collective works of Shakespeare out of those trillions of pages? Imagine the time that would take?

Well if you have infinite time one could say you will eventually do all these things. If we were to make some reasonable estimates about how quickly a monkey can type, eject pages, load new paper, and so on then we can begin to put some framework of time around this. We can also calculate probabilities. If there are X keys on a typewriter but only Y of them are legal letters then we can calculate the probability of a monkey hitting a correct key each time (not necessarily the needed key but at least an allowable character). Oh but we need to add in some probability around how many times the monkey hits 2 or 3 keys at once and not just one. One could easily imagine that for a single monkey to correctly type one page of Shakespeare might take tens of thousands of years. Now consider you need 5000 correctly typed pages. You can start to put some time boundaries on this experiment. If the analogy is that the collective works of Shakespeare correlates to a single living organism then you need all that time just to get the first single celled organism. That is still a drop in the bucket compared to all the complex organism that make up our world. That is like moving on from producing the collective works of Shakespeare to all the works in the Library of Congress. It gets worse. Even that first organism needed those amino acids to exist, in the right temperature range, etc, etc. That presupposes a planet in the right proximity to a star with those amino acids and all of that is the product of random chance. If that is not enough to exhaust your mind, let’s ask two more questions.

If the letters on the page represent amino acids combining in an attempt to create a protein how did those amino acids know to combine and form something? How did the matter, from which the universe was formed, know to behave? How did matter learn to do anything useful? How did matter learn to form stars and planets? How did matter know when to stop forming one thing and not just keep going past the point where something useful then became useless?

Secondly, where did matter come from? Where did the monkeys get the typewriters, paper, and ribbon from?

Back to our analogy again. We can imagine this would all take a very, very, very, very, very long time. How long is long enough? What are the odds that all this could take place in the 18.5 billion years we estimate the universe is old? We will assume there were failed attempts before the present working universe existed. We won’t count those against our 18.5 billion years. We’ll say the clock started ticking with the big bang that started the present universe. Then given all the trillions of things that had to happen after that moment in the exact right sequence (this is all by chance) that 18.5 billion years later we arrive at the universe we know today, is that even close to enough time? Back to our monkeys, if the monkey has say 40 keys on the typewriter (making a number up here) and only 30 of them are usable characters in English, his got a 3 out of 4 chance of hitting a legal character each time. Not bad odds. Now what are his odds of hitting the first letter of the first character in the first work of Shakespeare? He’s got a 1 out of 26 chance of picking the correct first letter but 1 out of 4 times he’s going to hit an illegal character so the odds are less than 1 out of 26. Now with each subsequent letter the odds get worse because not only does the monkey have to hit a key representing a legal character, but it has to be the exact character that comes next in that word in that sentence of that work. It’s one thing for a monkey to randomly strike keys and type “I” and “am.” He also has to get the order right. If the Shakespearean sentence is “I am” and the monkey types “am I” he has failed. Shakespeare had quite a command of the English language and many of his words were much longer than simple words like “I” and “am.” As the words get longer, the odds of randomly typing the right keys in order, get smaller and smaller. As the sentences get longer, the odds go down and down. Now multiply that times all the pages needed. Without calculating actual probabilities, one could imagine the odds of doing this with 100 monkeys is infinitesimally small. For all that to take place in 18.5 billion years, these monkeys are going to have to randomly do the right thing early on in each sequence of key strokes. In other words, to finish in 18.5 billion years, these monkey are going to have to be incredibly lucky. I mean so lucky that it defies credulity. Now you might say it’s possible to win the lottery on the very first ticket you ever buy even if the odds of winning are 1 in 1,000,000. So it’s possible someone could do it. What if I said a group of 100 people all had to win 10,000 lotteries one single ticket purchases in 1 week. We’ll assume there were that many lotteries to play. Now you would laugh at me. You would say that’s not possible. They would need more time than a week to each win 10,000 times! You can only physically walk into so many stores and buy tickets in a week. Beyond that you have to win! You would tell me it’s impossible. No human being could do that in a week.

That’s one of the problems with Darwinism. For pure chance to have produced this universe in 18.5 billion years is just not possible. The odds are so infinitesimally small as to  be impossible. like to hide behind that ridiculous notion that somehow it all could just be correct on the first try of every of the trillion things that have to happen. Sure mathematically it’s possible but math is not always reality. In real life it is completely unreasonable to think that could all happen in 18.5 billion years even though that sounds like an awfully long time. Not when you start to grasp the number of things that have to happen, in the exact correct order, all by chance. To grab on to that belief, and treat it as fact, is insane.

We could all exist in a Matrix-like existence and our Matrix could be a dream of one person in another Matrix who is the dream of one person in another Matrix and so on. Sounds like a good movie but do you really think that is the case? Would you put any money on that in a bet (assuming we had a way to settle the bet?) If after the bet is made, the truth will be reveled, and if you bet wrong you will be killed, would you bet on that explanation? I don’t think so. So why are so many betting on Darwinism and a universe created by chance? Why are so many people completely close-minded to even considering any other explanation? Yeah, it’s insane yet that is precisely the state of our world today. We have to move beyond the real of pure theory and probability, into the rational world of reality. Just because something is theoretically possible does not make it probable. If these odds are so low that a trillion years would not be enough time, would you bet on 18.5 billion years? At what point would you say, “ok, that’s just not enough time?” At what point would you say, “that can’t be right?”

If you believe we all got here by chance, then apparently you are willing to wait for eternity before concluding that is just not the answer.

At some point, the rational mind must say, “this is not rational” and reject it.

8 responses

  1. Your conclusions do indeed overlap with ideas in modern evolutionary biology. No serious scientist has ever claimed that evolution is a random process. Indeed, the only people who do claim that are I’ll informed theists.

    September 19, 2019 at 1:10 pm

    • “So in the end, most mutation is not random, at least for the DNA sequences we analyzed here,” Garvin said. Rather, it is a combination of two opposing forces — the mis-pairing during DNA replication and the need to preserve a protein’s function, Garvin said.”
      (https://www.livescience.com/48103-evolution-not-random.html)

      I think this article, including this quote, are an example of what you are referring to. The question this begs, at least to my mind, is how the DNA sequence knows to preserve a protein’s function. That implies some intelligence of a kind. A guiding hand of sorts that knows the difference between a mutation that could degrade a protein’s function and one that could enhance it.

      This seems to be an attempt to address the concerns raised by Intelligent Design, namely, the time required for evolution to succeed. To me, this backs Intelligent Design’s conclusion that there is an intelligence guiding the process. How did organic material gain intelligence? Once intelligence is introduced in the system, you can use that intelligence to explain ongoing intelligence, but where did the first intelligence come from?

      It’s like matter. If the Big Bang flung matter, where did that matter come from? How did the laws of physics come to be? Were they inherent in matter itself (in which case how)? How did the speed of light come to be the speed of light? How did matter know to super condense so there would be a big bang? How did matter know to cool and form stars and planets? All these types of questions, imply an intelligence working outside the system. I don’t see where evolution can explain the source of that intelligence.

      September 20, 2019 at 2:13 pm

  2. ‘How does the DNA sequence knows to preserve a protein’s function’
    …because the organism is less able to leave offspring without. No needmfor an intelligent guiding hand there. It’s always better to choose a simple explanation for an observed phenomena.

    September 20, 2019 at 7:42 pm

    • How does it know that except through trial and error? It can’t intelligently consider the possibilities and choose the one that will work. It can only keep making random choices until one works. Only an intelligence can guide it to keeping making the right choice.

      September 20, 2019 at 8:57 pm

      • No, you’re wrong about that. Guiding intelligence is NOT the only way choices can be made.

        September 20, 2019 at 11:15 pm

      • Without knowing those other ways, I cannot comment. For me, it’s pretty simple. Matter had to come from somewhere along with the laws of physics. I believe God created both and is the intelligence behind creation. God proved His existence to me through the person of Jesus Christ and the many fulfilled prophecies in the Bible. To me, that is far more credible than saying matter was eternally self-existent or some other unknown force was behind it’s creation. When one really studies the Bible, you find evidence that demands a verdict. It’s easy to dismiss the Bible as fables or stories but when you really research it, there are detailed prophecies that came true hundreds or thousands of years later. The evidence is that Jesus did raise from the dead. I see science as discovering the details to what God created. Science does not replace God, but rather, explains some of what God has done.

        September 21, 2019 at 12:28 pm

      • Evidence? In the Bible? I’m incredulous. There are far too many contradictions and inconsistencies for the good book to be used as a reliable source.

        September 21, 2019 at 1:38 pm

      • I usually hear that from people who have never read the Bible and who don’t understand it.

        September 21, 2019 at 8:18 pm

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